By Scott Jordan. Op-Ed.

It’s no secret to the outside observer that the 2012 Republican nominating contest has been the most divisive of the last 20 years. Not since Pat Robertson’s 1992 primary battle against George H.W. Bush whose eventual loss to Bill Clinton via the third party candidacy of Ross Perot, has the party been so fractured. The current cycle has seen no less than six anointed front runners raise and fall, with many polls still showing a yet to be satisfied conservative electorate. What is preventing the Republican Party from solidifying it’s base and coalescing around one candidate? More importantly, who is the candidate best suited to achieve this goal in November? To understand what is currently happening, one must identify the different groups vying for the nomination.

The first group is often called the “establishment” group, represented by the GOP’s hand picked and preferred candidate Mitt Romney. With the help and backing of the establishment, armed with high powered endorsements from Republican governors like Chris Christie and Nikki Haley, the former Massachusetts governor has set out this cycle to convince voters that he is the most electable candidate when matched up against President Obama. A common thread among Republican voters this election cycle is that they all believe that virtually any Republican candidate would make a better president than Barack Obama. We will call these individuals the “Anyone but Obama” voters. Mitt Romney is especially appealing to voters who fall into this category and who also believe his message that he’s the most electable. However, Romney’s support has often been criticized as soft; as recently indicated by a Pew exit poll of Florida voters which showed that only 34 percent saw him as the Republican candidate who “best understands the problems of average Americans.”.

The second group fighting for the nomination is the “Anyone but Obama… and Preferably Not Establishment” group, represented by former speaker of the house Newt Gingrich and former senator Rick Santorum. This group of voters is comprised of people who disdain the current president, but don’t trust Mitt Romney. Many also have a bad taste in their mouths from the Bush administration. In their view, George W. Bush generally abandoned conservative principles with programs like TARP, No Child Left Behind, Sarbanes Oxley, and deficit spending which they feel contributed to the housing bubble and great recession. Comprised of evangelicals, latecomers to the tea party and people unhappy with Mitt Romney, this group does not trust the establishment to adequately represent conservative values in the White House. Some of the hurdles facing this group are their candidates’ personal baggage, lack of organization and polls showing the lowest favorable ratings among all candidates in a general election. However, the biggest problem with these two candidates is that they’re not on the ballot in all 50 states, making it impossible for either one to win the nomination outright without landslide victories in a vast majority of the contests.

This brings us to the third and final group, the “Nobody But Paul” group. Obviously represented by Congressman Ron Paul, this group sees itself as pure constitutionalists; rigidly supporting the only man they feel has any true principles. This group is comprised of original tea partiers, anti-war activists, libertarians, independents, and even Democrats who are leaving their party and calling themselves “Blue Republicans”. It’s difficult to pinpoint any single big issue that binds them together; however a common theme in all of their responses is a restoration of the constitution and its principles, which they feel both parties have either ignored or abandoned. As stated, this group does not trust and will likely not vote for anybody but Ron Paul. With the exception of Dr. Paul, they view everybody else in the field, including Barack Obama, as coming from the same mold (more on that later). The biggest challenge facing this group is convincing the general public that Ron Paul is electable, a problem created by what they say is unfair treatment by the mainstream media, who has often labeled them as dangerous and extreme.

All of these groups share the common goal of beating Obama in November. The Romney group is easily the least committed to their candidate and it’s safe to assume that they would support anyone who got the Republican nomination. The Gingrich and Santorum group are marginally more committed, however they tend to bounce around from which ever candidate they view as the flavor of the month who is not Mitt Romney. This leaves us with the Paul group, who simply will not support any candidate but Ron Paul, regardless of who wins the nomination. The Republican party will need all three of these groups to unite if they’re going to beat Barack Obama in November. Over the last year, Gallup polling of head to head match-ups between different Republican candidates and Obama has consistently shown only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul matching up favorably against the president. Having said that, with Ron Paul’s supporters so committed to only backing their candidate, and Gingrich and Santorum supporters lacking ballot access and feeling uneasy about Mitt Romney, one has to ask, why not Ron Paul?

Current polling and results of the first four primary contests this cycle show that Ron Paul garners support from about 15 percent of the Republican base nationwide. Furthermore, polls have consistently shown that Dr. Paul is the only Republican candidate who gets more support from independent voters than Barack Obama. Independents makeup the largest voting block in the country and it’s virtually impossible to win an election without winning a majority of the independent vote. Another important factor when facing off against Obama is the youth vote, which propelled him to victory in 2008. Ron Paul has dominated the youth vote during the Republican primary season thus far, handily winning among people under 30 in each contest. This could play a key factor in chipping away at Obama’s most ardent support group. Couple that with the fact that Ron Paul is virtually the only candidate causing Democrats to leave their party to vote for the GOP and you have a very compelling argument for making him the Republican nominee. Republicans simply will not be able to beat Obama without 15 percent of their base and a majority of independent voters.

This brings us back to our original question, how can the Republican Party unite these three groups around one candidate to defeat Barack Obama? More importantly, who is the Republican Party and why are they not coalescing around the one candidate who could actually beat Obama? Before the GOP can even think about winning in November, they’ll first need to do some soul searching and solve their current identity crisis. We’ll explore this and more as the series continues.

The media is already raving about what a successful debate it was tongiht for Romney. We have previously written how Romney needed to go on the offensive during these debates, but there was a point tonight where he went a little far in our estimation. On one point, Rick Santorum pleaded for the conversation to move away from bickering about whether or not Newt is a lobbyist or how rich Mitt Romney is. Newt then concurred with Santorum and even offered a “truce” with Romney over the back and forth attacks. This gave Romney a chance to elevate the conversation, but, instead Romney threw some accusations right back into the face of Newt asking for him to explain himself for prior accusations. I believe this was a sad moment for the Republican primary and the general conservative political state. Romney was not willing to change gears, and it is no doubt that his advisors have told him to put his boot on Newt’s neck and not let up. It was a good chance to get down to things that matter, yet Mitt decided to play dirty politics. It was a small and already overlooked moment, but one that echoes for those hungry for a cogent Republican field with substance and real talk.

Bev Perdue announced today that she would not be running again for Governor. This was surprising to many, but considering the scandals that are surrounding all around her and her lackluster polling against McCrory, it isn’t unbelievable. The big question now is who will step in to run in her stead. Someone like Erskine Bowles would certainly be a formidable candidate, even though it is becoming the eleventh hour at this point. This is surely good news for the McCrory camp overall, but they have been doing opposition research on Bev for years which is now useless. Now they must sit and wait to see who steps up. There is no question that Democrats nationally will have a say in who steps in considering the emphasis on this state as well as the Democrat National Convention being held here. However, today is a good day for the McCrory camp, and many will be curiously watching to see who the Dems put forth as their new gubernatorial candidate.

There is a school of thought that says Republicans are hurting each other to the point that they are merely helping the Democrats and Obama’s chances of re-election. This is far from true. Yes it is true that the news has been distracting and Obama has gotten away with bad plays such as the Keystone Pipeline, but overall the Republicans beating each other up may prove to be beneficial. It is flawed thinking to believe Republicans need to hurry up and pick a nominee so that all of the attention can be put on Obama. This trial by fire is good for whichever of the four candidates emerges. One of Gingrich’s criticisms has been that he is a ticking time bomb just waiting to say or do something inappropriate. The current environment gives everyone a chance to see just how Newt responds to harsh criticism and extreme pressure for prolonged periods of time. The long days of campaigning and rhetorical gun fight with Romney will only make him a stronger candidate if he comes out on top. The same goes for Romney. He hasn’t truly been pressured until recently, and you find out what a candidate is really made of in times like these. Regarding the electability argument Romney supporters cite; If Romney can’t beat Gingrich in a primary battle then he probably won’t be able to beat Obama. Republicans should relax and see the current battle as more of a preparation for next fall than an act of cannibalism.

The Romney camp is still reeling from the results in South Carolina, and they are going through their most tested period since the inception of their second presidential run. The painful responses that Romney gave regarding his tax returns that he finally released this morning (same day as State of Union is no coincidence) were uncomfortable to watch, and Mitt needs to rather listen to his advisors more or be quicker on his feet when faced with these problems in the future. Governor Romney has been taking heat from the opposition from his Bain Capital history, and it would benefit the governor greatly to keep owning this record and not shying away from being successful. It took him some time to incorporate this into his lexicon, and it is something he needs to continue to do moving forward. Also, Mitt took too long to go on the offensive. It took a whipping in South Carolina for Romney to realize that he is going to have to get his hands dirty, and hopefully it is not too late for him at this point.

As we sit tonight looking at the S.C. returns, the Romney camp is reeling. It is almost incredible that the “inevitable” nominee has found himself in such a defeated state. He has only now won 1 of 3 primaries, and even the New Hampshire primary has an asterisk given that he had such an advantage being from Massachusetts.

We will take a close look at the results and what the drivers were, but it is clear that Romney will need to change course. His unwillingness to release tax returns; his record at Bain; his “flip-flopping” history; all are converging to make him vulnerable. That someone with as much “baggage” as Newt Gingrich; that someone as poorly financed as Rick Santorum, could beat him in 2 of the 3 primaries tells you something. There are some deep concerns about Mitt Romney and he has been unable to assuage them.

Nexus Politix has mentioned Chris Christie before. Maybe that is wishful thinking. We will be watching the rebuttal to the State of the Union given by Mitch Daniels. Perhaps he will add some perspective into the Republican primary race.

One thing is for sure. The pundits who wrote off Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, were wrong. Gingrich has arisen from the dead. That he won this primary by such a large margin tells you that Romney is no longer inevitable and in fact just experienced a drubbing. The drama continues to build and anything can happen next.

Two of the better angels in their respective professions, Jon Huntsman and Tim Tebow, are now out of the picture. Tebow was the first to go, having never really had a chance as Tom Brady, the experienced and talented pro quarterback for the New England Patriots, decimated the Broncos defense on Saturday. Millions tuned in as Tebow has accumulated a huge fan base, and is probably the only person I see as giving Mitt Romney a run for his money. It is certainly not any of the remaining Republican candidates!

Jon Huntsman, one of the more rational, experienced, professional, competent candidates in the race for the nomination, is reportedly facing reality after a disappointing finish up in New Hampshire and dropping out. The Republican faithful never rallied around him, and were it not for Mitt Romney and his enormous lead in the polls, this would be a step back for the Republican Party. Huntsman never really fulfilled his potential, and I’m sure he will re-group to see what might have gone wrong, just as Romney did after failing the last time around. Huntsman was sane; one of the more memorable messages for me was his message that the Republican Party can’t be known as a party that is anti-science.

We look forward to the debate tonight and the coming vote in the South Carolina primary this weekend.

This coming year Charlotte, North Carolina will be at the epicenter of the political world. The Democratic National Convention is being held in Charlotte September 3-7, so all of the party figureheads will be out in full force. It is no coincidence that the DNC chose Charlotte as the city to hold their convention. North Carolina went Democratic in the last Presidential election, and the Democrats want to keep it that way. It will be interesting to see the outcome of the DNC on elections in Charlotte and throughout the rest of the state. The upcoming gubernatorial contest between Bev Perdue and Pat McCrory will have many people around the country watching. The energy and momentum certainly see to be with McCrory at this point, but many things will occur between now and next November. McCrory recently reported raising 1.5 million in the second half of 2011 which means more than 2.5 million for last year. This is a considerable amount of money considering what he raised in 08. This strong fundraising coupled with Bev’s recent issues of campaign and administration staffers running into legal trouble spell out a good start for Pat. Anyone who follows North Carolina politics know that Pat is still in for an uphill battle being a Republican attempting election statewide. However, Bev’s accomplishments while in office have been meager at best, and there continues to be a veil of corruption cast over the Democrats running Raleigh. Presidential politics always has a significant impact on state elections, so it will be interesting to see how that will play out in the gubernatorial race here next November.

If you watched Mitt Romney’s speech having just been projected to win the New Hampshire primary, you saw a confident front-runner who is destined to win the Republican nomination. Huntsman on CNN says he has his ticket to South Carolina, and Ron Paul has a strong 2nd place finish. Stopping Romney is going to be almost impossible; and Republicans need to think twice about continuing to futilely attacking him on his tenure at Bain. Democrats will certainly do so; but Republicans who do so do the party a disservice.

Romney has minefields ahead, but he is much stronger than the rest of the Republican field and the results in Iowa and New Hampshire support that contention. We have promoted Chris Christie in this blog and trust his judgement on the Republican side. Chris Christie is no dummy. He fully stands behind Romney for President. So we’ll bow to the inevitable and now pencil him in as a possible VP. Christie vs Biden would make for some lively debates!

The country will be well-served and will be presented with clear choices if it is Romney versus Obama for President. We look forward as this Primary process leads to this inevitable result.

There is a lot of drama going into tonight’s debate, and the airwaves are full of tough attack ads, one which we have just watched produced by the Ron Paul campaign against both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich running in South Carolina. While the Ron Paul campaign has a long ways to go before it can compete with Romney, it has pulled no punches when competing with the other candidates. We are looking forward to the debate in New Hampshire!