By Scott Jordan. Op-Ed.

It’s no secret to the outside observer that the 2012 Republican nominating contest has been the most divisive of the last 20 years. Not since Pat Robertson’s 1992 primary battle against George H.W. Bush whose eventual loss to Bill Clinton via the third party candidacy of Ross Perot, has the party been so fractured. The current cycle has seen no less than six anointed front runners raise and fall, with many polls still showing a yet to be satisfied conservative electorate. What is preventing the Republican Party from solidifying it’s base and coalescing around one candidate? More importantly, who is the candidate best suited to achieve this goal in November? To understand what is currently happening, one must identify the different groups vying for the nomination.

The first group is often called the “establishment” group, represented by the GOP’s hand picked and preferred candidate Mitt Romney. With the help and backing of the establishment, armed with high powered endorsements from Republican governors like Chris Christie and Nikki Haley, the former Massachusetts governor has set out this cycle to convince voters that he is the most electable candidate when matched up against President Obama. A common thread among Republican voters this election cycle is that they all believe that virtually any Republican candidate would make a better president than Barack Obama. We will call these individuals the “Anyone but Obama” voters. Mitt Romney is especially appealing to voters who fall into this category and who also believe his message that he’s the most electable. However, Romney’s support has often been criticized as soft; as recently indicated by a Pew exit poll of Florida voters which showed that only 34 percent saw him as the Republican candidate who “best understands the problems of average Americans.”.

The second group fighting for the nomination is the “Anyone but Obama… and Preferably Not Establishment” group, represented by former speaker of the house Newt Gingrich and former senator Rick Santorum. This group of voters is comprised of people who disdain the current president, but don’t trust Mitt Romney. Many also have a bad taste in their mouths from the Bush administration. In their view, George W. Bush generally abandoned conservative principles with programs like TARP, No Child Left Behind, Sarbanes Oxley, and deficit spending which they feel contributed to the housing bubble and great recession. Comprised of evangelicals, latecomers to the tea party and people unhappy with Mitt Romney, this group does not trust the establishment to adequately represent conservative values in the White House. Some of the hurdles facing this group are their candidates’ personal baggage, lack of organization and polls showing the lowest favorable ratings among all candidates in a general election. However, the biggest problem with these two candidates is that they’re not on the ballot in all 50 states, making it impossible for either one to win the nomination outright without landslide victories in a vast majority of the contests.

This brings us to the third and final group, the “Nobody But Paul” group. Obviously represented by Congressman Ron Paul, this group sees itself as pure constitutionalists; rigidly supporting the only man they feel has any true principles. This group is comprised of original tea partiers, anti-war activists, libertarians, independents, and even Democrats who are leaving their party and calling themselves “Blue Republicans”. It’s difficult to pinpoint any single big issue that binds them together; however a common theme in all of their responses is a restoration of the constitution and its principles, which they feel both parties have either ignored or abandoned. As stated, this group does not trust and will likely not vote for anybody but Ron Paul. With the exception of Dr. Paul, they view everybody else in the field, including Barack Obama, as coming from the same mold (more on that later). The biggest challenge facing this group is convincing the general public that Ron Paul is electable, a problem created by what they say is unfair treatment by the mainstream media, who has often labeled them as dangerous and extreme.

All of these groups share the common goal of beating Obama in November. The Romney group is easily the least committed to their candidate and it’s safe to assume that they would support anyone who got the Republican nomination. The Gingrich and Santorum group are marginally more committed, however they tend to bounce around from which ever candidate they view as the flavor of the month who is not Mitt Romney. This leaves us with the Paul group, who simply will not support any candidate but Ron Paul, regardless of who wins the nomination. The Republican party will need all three of these groups to unite if they’re going to beat Barack Obama in November. Over the last year, Gallup polling of head to head match-ups between different Republican candidates and Obama has consistently shown only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul matching up favorably against the president. Having said that, with Ron Paul’s supporters so committed to only backing their candidate, and Gingrich and Santorum supporters lacking ballot access and feeling uneasy about Mitt Romney, one has to ask, why not Ron Paul?

Current polling and results of the first four primary contests this cycle show that Ron Paul garners support from about 15 percent of the Republican base nationwide. Furthermore, polls have consistently shown that Dr. Paul is the only Republican candidate who gets more support from independent voters than Barack Obama. Independents makeup the largest voting block in the country and it’s virtually impossible to win an election without winning a majority of the independent vote. Another important factor when facing off against Obama is the youth vote, which propelled him to victory in 2008. Ron Paul has dominated the youth vote during the Republican primary season thus far, handily winning among people under 30 in each contest. This could play a key factor in chipping away at Obama’s most ardent support group. Couple that with the fact that Ron Paul is virtually the only candidate causing Democrats to leave their party to vote for the GOP and you have a very compelling argument for making him the Republican nominee. Republicans simply will not be able to beat Obama without 15 percent of their base and a majority of independent voters.

This brings us back to our original question, how can the Republican Party unite these three groups around one candidate to defeat Barack Obama? More importantly, who is the Republican Party and why are they not coalescing around the one candidate who could actually beat Obama? Before the GOP can even think about winning in November, they’ll first need to do some soul searching and solve their current identity crisis. We’ll explore this and more as the series continues.